Wildcard Saturday part II

Philly +4

Holding my nose a little bit on this. Philly had 3 red zone trips with no points and then things kind of snowballed. This is probably a field goal game and the public is having a collective orgasm on Dallas. Yes, Philly is down their starting center. Yes, I don't know how Philly is going to run the ball. Remember 21-10 with Philly getting a garbage TD and 2 point conversion and you cover. There are multiple ways to win this game. McNabb in a close game is worrisome. That's why it's gambling.

Wildcard Saturday

Cincy -2.5 JETS

If we saw this line 48 hours ago we would be jumping on Cincy. Are we going to over react that much to one game? Cincy had 2 defensive lineman out along with Benson. There is some cause for concern as many feel Cincy was actually trying in the first quarter but getting blown up on both lines. I'm going to fade the rookie QB who admittedly can't throw in poor weather conditions.

BCS Title Game

BCS title game

Alabama -3.5 over Texas.

Rationale: Alabama has advantages with their d-line vs Texas' o-line and at worse a push with their o-line vs Texas' d-line. Alabama will be able to run. Texas won't.

Texas faced 2 top 20 teams according to Sagarin Nebraska and OU and struggled in both games. Alabama faced 7 such teams granted they struggled in some of those games but at least they have a signature win or two against top teams. Texas has yet to do that.

Next issue: how is Texas going to move the ball on offense. Knee jerk: Colt McCoy to Jordan Shipley. Really? OU and NU doubled Shipley and shut him down. I don't see Texas' o-line keeping McLain, Nico Johnson and Deadrick off McCoy. I see Alabama's stellar corners locking up Texas' wide outs. Texas can't run and has no tight end. McCoy is the running game. Alabama is going to force McCoy to throw deep. I don't see it working against that secondary.

An under rated component of this game that no one is talking about is Alabama's passing game especially given Texas has to respect any and all run fakes.

Tide Rolls 24-17. Lay the points.

iPhone app is in the App Store!!!!!

It can be found by searching "FadeThePublic" or "Fade The Public". Comments and feedback welcome and needed.

Road Favorites coming off a bye

Updated after the Pittsburgh-Denver Monday nighter.

Road Favorites have been $ off a bye . They went a perfect 7-0 ATS last year , and Pitt makes it a perfect 2-0 TY ...so on a nice 8-0 ATS run since the start of last year .

43-12-1 in the last 9 years

iPhone app has been re-submitted

I forgot to check for network connectivity. We also had a bug determining local start times due to daylight savings time ending. Both are fixed and we are awaiting word from the folks in Cupertino.

Top Home Fields

Folks, I found this interesting. Just be very careful taking Tampa Bay.

Seattle Seahawks (4.5): Qwest Field claims keeps a sign up which reads “12th man” for the contributions the vocal home fans make for the Seahawks. Seattle is 35-13 straight up over the last six seasons at the uniquely loud field. The team was terrible last season, but don’t forget it went 6-2 against the spread at home in two of the previous three seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4.5): The Steelers are 47-16-1 in their last eight seasons at Heinz Field and they’ve only been a home ‘dog five times in their last nine seasons (they’ve covered four of those games). The ATS data isn’t as strong, but I think that has more to do with oddsmakers increasing the club’s home lines. The Yellow and Black get well-earned respect from the books and bettors at the Ketchup Bottle.

Baltimore Ravens (4.0): The Ravens make their home edge count. As a home dog they’ve only been about a 50-50 proposition this decade but as a home fave they’re own a 36-16-2 ATS mark. They draw well at M&T Bank Stadium and they’ve won at least six home games in all but two of the last nine seasons.

San Diego Chargers (4.0): Here’s another team that benefits from being out West. Teams to the Left Coast rarely come up with their best performance. The Bolts are 26-13-1 ATS over the last five seasons in at home games. Last season was a bit of an aberration because of injuries, but prior to 2008, San Diego had won at least seven of its eight home games straight up in three of the four campaigns.

Minnesota Vikings (4.0): A new stadium is on the way but the Vikes may end up missing the dome. The Purple People Eaters are 47-25 straight-up there in this decade. Minny holds just a 50 percent ATS record this decade in friendly confines, a sign that oddsmakers are on top of the added edge the team holds at the Metrodome.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.0): The Bucs are a much stronger home team than road team. They’ve gone at least 6-2 in three of the last four seasons at Raymond James Stadium. They’re also 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 times they’ve been a home ‘dog. Tampa Bay is averaging 2.4 more home wins than road wins over the last five seasons.

New England Patriots (4.0): The Pats have gone undefeated on their home field in three of the last six seasons. Their glory years of covering the spread in home games were 2003 and 2004. Since then, they’ve been mediocre at home from an ATS standpoint. Still, their 39-9 straight-up mark at home over the last six seasons shows how well they play in Gillette Stadium.

Arizona Cardinals (3.5): The Cards play their home games at University of Phoenix Stadium which opened in August of 2006. The first season it wasn’t a big edge but Arizona was a 5-11 team at the time. The true value has been demonstrated over the last two years. The club is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS over that period in the desert.

New York Giants (3.5): Unlike the Jets, the Giants seem to know how to get the most out of Giants Stadium. They are 19-13 ATS there the last four seasons and in two of those seasons they lost just once game straight-up. The Giants handle the elements much better than their opponents when the winds are swirling at the Meadowlands. Kicking can be especially troublesome for clubs that don’t have much experience in the conditions.

Houston Texans (3.5): Ask almost any opponent and they’ll tell you, the Texans are much tougher to face at Reliant Stadium than when you get them in your own house. Houston has gone 6-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium each of the last two seasons while going just 2-6 on the road. The Texans are also 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.