Alabama -3.5 over Texas.
Rationale: Alabama has advantages with their d-line vs Texas' o-line and at worse a push with their o-line vs Texas' d-line. Alabama will be able to run. Texas won't.
Texas faced 2 top 20 teams according to Sagarin Nebraska and OU and struggled in both games. Alabama faced 7 such teams granted they struggled in some of those games but at least they have a signature win or two against top teams. Texas has yet to do that.
Next issue: how is Texas going to move the ball on offense. Knee jerk: Colt McCoy to Jordan Shipley. Really? OU and NU doubled Shipley and shut him down. I don't see Texas' o-line keeping McLain, Nico Johnson and Deadrick off McCoy. I see Alabama's stellar corners locking up Texas' wide outs. Texas can't run and has no tight end. McCoy is the running game. Alabama is going to force McCoy to throw deep. I don't see it working against that secondary.
An under rated component of this game that no one is talking about is Alabama's passing game especially given Texas has to respect any and all run fakes.
Tide Rolls 24-17. Lay the points.
No comments:
Post a Comment